Development of a Probabilistic Boolean network (PBN) to model intraoperative blood pressure management.

BACKGROUND: Blood pressure is a vital sign for organ perfusion that anesthesiologists measure and modulate during surgery. However, current decision-making processes rely heavily on clinicians' experience, which can lead to variability in treatment across surgeries. With the advent of machine learning, we can now create models to predict the outcomes of interventions and guide perioperative decision-making. The first step in this process involves translating the clinical decision-making process into a framework understood by an algorithm. Probabilistic Boolean networks (PBNs) provide an information-rich approach to this problem. A PBN trends toward a steady state, and its decisions are easily understood via its Boolean predictor functions. We hypothesize that a PBN can be developed that corrects hemodynamic instability in patients by selecting clinical interventions to maintain blood pressure within a given range. METHODS: Data on patients over the age of 65 undergoing surgery with general anesthesia from 2018 to 2020 were drawn from the UF Health PRECEDE data set with IRB approval (IRB201700747). Parameters examined included heart rate, blood pressure, and frequency of medications given 15 min after anesthetic induction and 15 min before awakening. The medication frequency data were truncated into a 66/33 split for the training and validation set used in the PBN. The model was coded using Python 3 and evaluated by comparing the frequency of medications chosen by the program to the values in the testing set via linear regression analysis. RESULTS: The network developed successfully models a hemodynamically unstable patient and corrects the imbalance by administering medications. This is evidenced by the model achieving a stable, steady state matrix in all iterations. However, the model's ability to emulate clinical drug selection was variable. It was successful with its use of vasodilator selection but struggled with the appropriate selection of vasopressors. CONCLUSIONS: The PBN has demonstrated the ability to choose appropriate interventions based on a patient's current vitals. Additional work must be done to have the network emulate the frequency at which drugs are selected from in clinical practice. In its current state, the model provides an understanding of how a PBN behaves in the context of correcting hemodynamic instability and can aid in developing more robust models in the future.

Fairness in the prediction of acute postoperative pain using machine learning models.

Introduction: Overall performance of machine learning-based prediction models is promising; however, their generalizability and fairness must be vigorously investigated to ensure they perform sufficiently well for all patients. Objective: This study aimed to evaluate prediction bias in machine learning models used for predicting acute postoperative pain. Method: We conducted a retrospective review of electronic health records for patients undergoing orthopedic surgery from June 1, 2011, to June 30, 2019, at the University of Florida Health system/Shands Hospital. CatBoost machine learning models were trained for predicting the binary outcome of low (≤4) and high pain (>4). Model biases were assessed against seven protected attributes of age, sex, race, area deprivation index (ADI), speaking language, health literacy, and insurance type. Reweighing of protected attributes was investigated for reducing model bias compared with base models. Fairness metrics of equal opportunity, predictive parity, predictive equality, statistical parity, and overall accuracy equality were examined. Results: The final dataset included 14,263 patients [age: 60.72 (16.03) years, 53.87% female, 39.13% low acute postoperative pain]. The machine learning model (area under the curve, 0.71) was biased in terms of age, race, ADI, and insurance type, but not in terms of sex, language, and health literacy. Despite promising overall performance in predicting acute postoperative pain, machine learning-based prediction models may be biased with respect to protected attributes. Conclusion: These findings show the need to evaluate fairness in machine learning models involved in perioperative pain before they are implemented as clinical decision support tools.